Reasons 2016 Could Be Donald Trump’s Win

Posted on September 12, 2016 by

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Unknown.jpegIn a discussion of the 2016 election, we should consider the history of past elections. This election has no incumbent and follows a re-election of an incumbent (President Obama). History shows the election, in this instance, favors the opposing party (Republican party).

“In the modern two-party era (beginning with the first Republican Party presidential campaign in 1856), there have been 16 elections following the re-election of an incumbent president; in 11 of those races, there was no incumbent on the ballot. An analysis of those elections shows a startlingly uniform pattern over time: the incumbent party (i.e., the party that won the last election) consistently lost ground relative to the challenger party (the party out of power), especially when running without an incumbent on the ballot. And in nearly every such election, that loss of popular support was evident in closely-divided battleground states, rather than confined to uncompetitive states. The trend has persisted in winning and losing elections, in elections with and without third-party challengers, in times of war and peace, booms and depressions. It has become more, rather than less, pronounced in the years since World War II, and at all times has been more pronounced when the incumbent party is the Democrats.” History Is Not On The Democrats’ Side in 2016, By Dan McLaughlin, the federalist.com

Admittedly, there are some things that favor Hillary Clinton: name recognition, experience in Obama’s cabinet, the novelty of being a woman candidate and the advantage of California being a Democratic state with it’s electoral votes, but the feeling of a large number of U.S. citizens is that they are tired of politicians and would prefer a candidate that is more credible. Someone who says what they mean. In Trump’s case, he certainly says what he means even with the result of offending groups of people, but this candor is preferred among many groups of people. In Cleveland at the Republican National Convention, Frank Luntz conducted several focus groups sponsored by Google. The focus groups contained Republicans, Democrats, Independents, Bernie Sanders supporters and members of the “Never Trump” movement.

Candor counts – a lot. Much of Donald Trump’s appeal, at least among conservatives and Republicans, stems from his willingness to say just about anything to just about anyone at just about any time. The fact that he quite literally has no communication filter is (mostly) a positive. Conversely, Hillary Clinton’s manically scripted presentation is a real turnoff to voters desperately searching for truth and authenticity. The lesson: leave the speeches and talking points on the tarmac. Undecided voters want to know what you truly think – on the fly.” Frank Luntz: The Myth of the Undecided Voter time.com July 27, 2016

Trump gained ground in his choice of running mate. The focus groups were pleasantly surprised and reported that he made all the difference in convincing them to vote for Trump. The focus group participants felt that Pence balanced Trump, that he was credible and stable.

Interestingly, when this focus group was asked for a show of hands as to who would still be voting for Hillary, no one raised their hands.

There are five reasons that Michael Moore, reluctantly, believes Trump will win. The first of which is what he calls Midwest Math or Rust Belt Brexit. (5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win, michaelmoore.com) The argument here is that Trump will work to win Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These states, in addition to the traditional red states are all he needs to win. The way he will carry these Democratic states is with his correct statement:

…that the Clinton’s support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states.

The second reason is called “The Last Stand of the Angry White Man” and can be quickly explained by the view of the group of white males offended by the country being led by a black man for eight years and the fear that now they will be told what to do by a woman.

Third is called the “Hillary Problem” in which “nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. Next is the “Depressed Sanders Vote” where Michael Moore’s claim is that the Sanders voters will not be motivated to even come out and vote so the democratic votes will be lessened. Last is the “Jesse Ventura Effect” that likens Trump being voted in to Jesse Ventura being voted governor of Minnesota. People will vote for him because they think the political system is broken so why not? It is a good way to make a statement that people are sick of the status quo and they are willing to risk the fallout.

Link all of these reasons together with the newest development of Hillary fainting which supports Trump’s contention that she is not strong enough physically to handle a presidency and it is understandable why the numbers have been showing Trump gaining.

Finally, and not very flattering, is that we have been getting a steady diet of reality shows. The whole campaign with Trump and Clinton has been a spectacular mirroring of reality show antics. The country is curious to see what happens on the next episode and that is how we get to the candidates we have and how Trump comes out on top.

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